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Bagai-type Play in Finals at Ohio – Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Tuesday, 31 March 2015, at 8:14 p.m.

In Response To: Bagai-type Play in Finals at Ohio (Taper_Mike)

The reason to "Bagai" (point on head, fill in a gap, leave a shot) is to juice up the gammons at the expense of a small increased cost of losing.

Here the gammons are sky high anyway so there is almost no benefit to the Bagai maneuver. On the other hand, the losing chances are miniscule also. So while incorrect, the play isn't terrrible. But the concept is bad. I am volunteering a shot (more risk) for no benefit (it is a gammon anyway).

Bill Calton’s remarks are spot on, but they only tell half the story. Bill pointed out that he need not have played the “Bagai” because he is already winning an almost sure gammon. The rollout confirms that. The “Bagai” is the DMP play, winning more games, but it wins 4% fewer gammons.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 54
Unlimited Game
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=------E-F----B-----bddAbbA:1:1:-1:31:0:0:0:0:10
White to play 31

1.Rollout14/3* 3/Offeq: +1.7590
Player:
Opponent:
94.80% (G:87.49% B:1.15%)
5.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ±0.0022 (+1.7568...+1.7613) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 20 seconds
2.Rollout16/3* 4/3eq: +1.7368 (-0.0222)
Player:
Opponent:
95.64% (G:83.64% B:0.68%)
4.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ±0.0018 (+1.7350...+1.7386) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 43 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59279099
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2015-Mar-31
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000995.xgp

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

The same is true when the opponent is already on the roof. As above, the “Bagai” wins 4% fewer gammons:





White is Bill Calton

score: 0
pip: 54
Unlimited Game
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is David Rockwell
XGID=------E-F----B-----bdd-bbB:1:1:-1:31:0:0:0:0:10
White to play 31

1.Rollout14/Offeq: +1.7593
Player:
Opponent:
94.75% (G:87.54% B:1.16%)
5.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ±0.0021 (+1.7572...+1.7614) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 09 seconds
2.Rollout15/4 5/2eq: +1.7467 (-0.0126)
Player:
Opponent:
95.04% (G:86.12% B:0.70%)
4.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ±0.0019 (+1.7448...+1.7486) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 00 second
3.Rollout16/3 4/3eq: +1.7368 (-0.0225)
Player:
Opponent:
95.68% (G:83.61% B:0.66%)
4.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ±0.0020 (+1.7347...+1.7388) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 56 seconds
4.Rollout15/1eq: +1.7247 (-0.0346)
Player:
Opponent:
94.19% (G:85.94% B:0.73%)
5.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ±0.0021 (+1.7226...+1.7268) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 17 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 17732424
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2015-Mar-30
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000995b.xgp

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

The other half of the story is safety. The future danger represented by a gap may be a good reason to fill it while your board is still strong, and the opponent is toothless. It is too easy, however, to jump over a gap on the 3pt. That one is not worth filling. Move it down to the 2pt, and you have a good reason for the “Bagai:”





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 54
Unlimited Game
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=------E-F----B-----bdbd-bB:1:1:-1:41:0:0:0:0:10
White to play 41

1.Rollout16/2 3/2eq: +1.7227
Player:
Opponent:
95.23% (G:83.33% B:0.73%)
4.77% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ±0.0021 (+1.7206...+1.7248) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 07 seconds
2.Rollout15/4 5/1eq: +1.6894 (-0.0333)
Player:
Opponent:
93.17% (G:84.49% B:1.08%)
6.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ±0.0025 (+1.6869...+1.6919) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 12 seconds
3.Rollout15/Offeq: +1.6733 (-0.0494)
Player:
Opponent:
92.51% (G:84.02% B:1.64%)
7.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ±0.0028 (+1.6706...+1.6761) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 16 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 17732424
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2015-Mar-30
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000995a.xgp

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Put the blot back in the gap, and it becomes a blunder not fill it in. The top 2 plays both involve a loose hit. The safe 5/off is a third-best double-whopper!





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 54
Unlimited Game
pip: 152
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=------E-F----B-----bdbdAbA:1:1:-1:41:0:0:0:0:10
White to play 41

1.Rollout16/2* 3/2eq: +1.7214
Player:
Opponent:
95.22% (G:83.19% B:0.72%)
4.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ±0.0020 (+1.7194...+1.7234) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout15/1 3/2* eq: +1.6101 (-0.1113)
Player:
Opponent:
91.54% (G:81.13% B:0.79%)
8.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ±0.0027 (+1.6074...+1.6128) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 53 seconds
3.Rollout15/Offeq: +1.5249 (-0.1965)
Player:
Opponent:
89.53% (G:76.14% B:2.00%)
10.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ±0.0028 (+1.5220...+1.5277) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 13 seconds
4.Rollout15/4 5/1eq: +1.5239 (-0.1975)
Player:
Opponent:
90.04% (G:75.45% B:1.40%)
9.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ±0.0026 (+1.5213...+1.5265) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 56 seconds
5.Rollout16/5 6/2* eq: +1.5224 (-0.1991)
Player:
Opponent:
90.52% (G:74.96% B:0.64%)
9.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ±0.0030 (+1.5193...+1.5254) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 17 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59279099
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2015-Mar-30
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000995c.xgp

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Here are some other positions where the “Bagai” is discussed:

Bearing in against deuce+ (Rollout)

Posted By: Jeremy Bagai <jeremy@fortuitouspress.com>

Date: Friday, 3 June 2011, at 7:50 a.m.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=97726

Bearoff against contact

Posted By: Jeremy Bagai <jeremy@fortuitouspress.com>

Date: Sunday, 19 June 2011, at 7:05 a.m.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=98638

I seem not to be learning

NEEDS ROLLOUT

Posted By: Jeremy Bagai <jeremy@fortuitouspress.com>

Date: Tuesday, 28 June 2011, at 10:59 p.m.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=99269

Mochy's Variant - I seem not to be learning

Posted By: Mochy <mochy@backgammon.gr.jp>

Date: Wednesday, 29 June 2011, at 5:16 p.m.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=99296

Position for Jeremy Bagai and Everyone Else

Posted by: Paul Weaver

Date: 2012-01-21

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=113593

Position for Jeremy Bagai and Everyone Else

Posted By: Paul Weaver <bgopenings@aol.com>

Date: Sunday, 12 February 2012, at 10:25 a.m.

NOT A BAGAI

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=122299

The Jeremy Bagai Position Makes Another Appearance

OTB and RO

Posted By: neilkaz <neilkaz@earthlink.net>

Date: Sunday, 4 March 2012, at 4:47 p.m.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=116999

Jeremy misses another Jeremy-type position

Posted By: Jeremy Bagai <jeremy@fortuitouspress.com>

Date: Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 7:13 p.m.

NOT A BAGAI BECAUSE IT DOES NOT SWITCH POINTS

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=117211

Bagai in the House? Rollouts

Posted By: Stick <checkmugged@yahoo.com>

Date: Saturday, 5 May 2012, at 2:39 a.m.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=121293

More Bagai-esque Play?

Posted By: Stick <checkmugged@yahoo.com>

Date: Wednesday, 23 May 2012, at 3:27 p.m.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=122430

More Bagai?

Posted By: Stick <checkmugged@yahoo.com>

Date: Thursday, 7 June 2012, at 7:46 p.m.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=123579

Daily Quiz 5/3

Posted By: Daily Quiz <raindrops_33_17@hotmail.com>

Date: Saturday, 2 June 2012, at 7:47 a.m.

POSITION2 – NOT A BAGAI

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=123892

Rollout: Is this Bagaic?

Posted By: David Levy <trictrac@sbcglobal.net>

Date: Thursday, 28 June 2012, at 4:07 a.m.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=124910

I miss a Bagai position in LA

Posted By: Jeremy Bagai <jeremy@fortuitouspress.com>

Date: Tuesday, 17 July 2012, at 11:54 p.m.

NOT A BAGAI POSITION

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=126381

I missed a Bagai position while reading this thread

Posted By: Michael Nielsen <turbomn1@yahoo.com>

Date: Thursday, 19 July 2012, at 11:38 a.m.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=126465

Falafel vs. Bagai? — 4-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike <Taper_Mike@yahoo.com>

Date: Monday, 6 August 2012, at 7:08 a.m.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=127504

Rollout: Stick vs. Bagai?

Posted By: Timothy Chow <tchow8@hotmail.com>

Date: Monday, 27 August 2012, at 11:40 p.m.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?read=128694

To Bagai or not to Bagai

Stick

Date: 2013-04-06

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=140016

Bagai Position Again

BAGAI PLAY IS 2ND BEST

Posted By: Mochy <mochy@backgammon.gr.jp>

Date: Friday, 3 May 2013, at 6:57 p.m.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=141295

Bagai, anyone? — Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike <Taper_Mike@yahoo.com>

Date: Sunday, 23 June 2013, at 9:39 a.m.

BAGAI PLAY IS 5TH-BEST, TRAILING BY 0.0314

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=143526

Bagai Position Arises In My Match Against Bagai!!!

Posted By: Paul Weaver <bgopenings@aol.com>

Date: Tuesday, 17 September 2013, at 12:16 a.m.

NOT A TRUE BAGAI POSITION – LACKS A SAFE ALTERNATIVE

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=146721

Anybody seen da guy?

Posted By: Taper_Mike <Taper_Mike@yahoo.com>

Date: Saturday, 1 November 2014, at 6:04 a.m.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=168540

Bagai Position after a Late Hit

Posted By: Taper_Mike <Taper_Mike@yahoo.com>

Date: Thursday, 8 January 2015, at 7:43 p.m.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=171670

Bagai-type Play in Finals at Ohio

Posted By: Taper_Mike <Taper_Mike@yahoo.com>

Date: Monday, 30 March 2015, at 4:10 a.m.

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbbs_config.pl?noframes;read=176748

Mike

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