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Rollout from day's past - OLM dec. 31st

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 20 January 2007, at 9:29 a.m.

Just trying to clear some files off my desktop. I still think this is too tough a take to take. I'm happy if my opponent takes here ... considering esp. my play will be mostly straightforward, I'll make the five pt. and continue with the closeout if possible, hit that other outfield checker, w/e, while you're hoping to get into a 2 pt. anchor game and play from there... seems too ugly.

Money Game
147
152
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.614
  1.9%  32.1%  67.9%    32.1%   8.0%   0.5%
  95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.614 ±0.009, - live cube no double: 0.774 ±0.015, - live cube double take: 0.984 ±0.024. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 2592 games (equiv. 78709 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts,

random seed, with race database.

Evaluations
1. Double, pass 1.000
2. No double 0.764 (-0.236)
3. Double, take 0.994 (-0.006)
Proper cube action:   Double, pass
Live cube
1. Double, take 0.984
2. No double 0.774 (-0.210)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.016)
Proper cube action:   Double, take

 

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