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8 factors that determine a race/Koca almost wins

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Thursday, 2 April 2015, at 9:54 p.m.

In Response To: 8 factors that determine a race (Bob Koca)

Bob Koca came the closest and got almost all. It's semantics how you break it down, but several of Bob's items I grouped...for example, the score and how it affects the cube is, on my list, part of the cube category. Crossovers and checkers off is part of distribution. But Bob got them all but one.

The one he missed, which could affect who wins a race is:

cheating.

It is possible to cheat and increase your winning chances. Cheat by moving illegally, or cheat with the dice, or cheat on line by getting help with your plays. Or cheat by having a friend grimace when you are about to make the wrong move. And there are probably a few other ways I haven't thought of yet.

Why do I add cheating? Because it is a fact of life that when people compete, people will cheat, and I make sure my students are aware of this potential and know to watch for it. I even show students how to cheat when they roll the dice so they can watch for it. As we all know, some "cheating" in not intentional...we've all seen people, and we have all ourselves, moved checkers wrong or read the dice wrong in our own favor. That is not cheating, but it amounts to the same result.

So my list of 8 is:

Pip count difference Who is on roll Length of race Distribution Doubling cube—both use and position of the cube Skill Luck Cheating

Then I show the student examples of how each factor can change the odds, and then I teach Keith, I-Sight, EPC, and reference positions so they can take these factors into account in their checker and cube decisions in a race.

You would be surprised how many experienced players have no understanding of wastage, and how many people have played this game for years and never realized that being up 10 percent in a shorter race is a lot better than being up 10 percent in a longer race.

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