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OLM 20150403A The Prime Factors

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 3 April 2015, at 5:45 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20150403A The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

8/4*(2) looks automatic here.

After that we have lots of ways to finish the roll. I'm not going to list all the ones I looked at, but hopefully the right play is at least among those I surveyed. It seems to come down to (the obvious?) two candidates.

7/3(2) looks attractive, but that's four blots and 13 shots. None of his entering numbers involve 6's being blocked. Still, the seven extra fans are worth quite a bit. This likely leads to more gammon wins. Part of the latter takes into account the better builder distribution.

Our 7-point is 'almost' as good as our 3-point (whatever that means :) and 15/7 gets one of our two back checkers to safety (where it's also a longterm builder).

15/7 (14 total shots? same as 3[2]?) leaves (by two) the fewest damaging return hits (if I counted correctly). Only four rolls hit our outfield checker and only 11 and 33 (of ten) hit our checker in Dillie's homeboard without leaving a direct return shot.

So, are the extra fans (and gammons) worth leaving four blots instead of two? I think I need a tiebreaker. Oh, what about his entering 14 and 24 rolls? Those force either 6/2 (burying) or a new direct shot after 3(2) although the option of 16/12 isn't much better after 15/7. That didn't help much.

Our strength is our homeside structure and I'm going to concentrate on our strength rather than our weakness. Besides

8/4*(2), 7/3(2)

just looks better. Hope I can say that next turn.

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