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Cube action ATS?

Posted By: Michael Sullivan
Date: Friday, 3 April 2015, at 6:43 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (Chuck Bower)

I think of the leader's recube vig at this score as being terrible. While losing on an 8 cube does leave him at 50%, losing on a 2 cube leaves him a -4, -10 which is 83%. OTOH, winning on 2 makes it -2, -12 or 95%. So recuber would be risking 33% to gain 5%, That means cube window *opens* at 86% compared to 50% for $. Brown here cannot recube at 85% even in a last roll position, I'd say that's a really small amount of recube vig, which means that yellow can cube on any significant advantage with a bunch of market losers.

I've seen positions at this score where it's correct for the trailer to recube at a disadvantage, because it essentially takes away the cube vig from opponent, by turning a bunch of potential future decisions for opponent on the next round or two from huge D/T or D/closeD to NRD/T. This doesn't look like that kind of position because here brown will already have lost their market if the shot is missed.

Given this, It's hard for me to imagine how this position got reached without somebody having a double before now.

That said, I think yellow has 50%+ so it's probably just barely a D, and a massive T.

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