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Thought Process

Posted By: Mike Clapsadle
Date: Saturday, 4 April 2015, at 12:25 a.m.

In Response To: Thought Process (John O'Hagan)

Thanks for the input.

This came from one of my doubles matches in Ohio where my partner and I disagreed about the whether or not it was a take or drop. (we ended up dropping).

Using the rollout percentages, blue only needs 39.3% to take, which he just barely has.

I was more concerned though with how one would go about estimating the gammon percentages in a position like this...or in any position.





White is Clapsadle/Calton

score: 5
pip: 125
7 point match
pip: 114
score: 2

Blue is Knapp/Geoffroy
XGID=-a-BBBBDa---A-a--b-bdbb-AA:0:0:-1:00:5:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.39% (G:28.49% B:1.43%) 60.56% (G:30.08% B:1.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.61% (G:7.82% B:0.84%) 39.44% (G:7.92% B:0.75%)
Cubeless Equities +0.309 +0.989
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.721 (-0.268)±0.009 (+0.712..+0.729)
Double/Take:+0.989±0.012 (+0.977..+1.000)
xg Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.011)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:97.2%
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.12.201.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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