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Mochy/Simborg Duel Announced

Posted By: Rick Janowski
Date: Saturday, 18 April 2015, at 9:56 a.m.

In Response To: Mochy/Simborg Duel Announced (Phil Simborg)

Considering all the possible opening roll positions where one side owns the cube and analysing using XGR++, the equity of the player owning the cube is +0.183 points per game (this is broadly equivalent to the situation where the players are of equal strength.

In the help pages of XG, Xavier provides the following empirically derived formula for converting Elo difference to points per game expectation for money games:

PPG = (Elo Difference)/50*0.100

Also from the help pages of XG, the following relationship between Elo difference and PR difference may be defined (derived from empirically derived formula):

Elo Difference = 33*(PR Difference)

Combining these two equations yields:

PPG = 0.066*(PR Difference)

Where PPG = +0.183, the implied PR difference relating to a break-even proposition is 0.183/0.066 = 2.8 approx (close to 3.0 considered by Mochy).

If we assume Mochy’s long term average PR is 2.8, then he would appear to have a break-even proposition when his opponent’s PR is 5.6. With higher PRs he would appear to have the best side of the deal.

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