Over the board, I was estimating my racing chances at about 6-8%. Like a lot of my OTB decisions, that wasn't based on any fancy formula. It was just a guess from experience and looking a racing positions for decades. I estimated my chances of winning after hitting a shot were a bit less. I think what I didn't really factor in was that I could still win the race after staying. Looks like running was wrong by a very small amount.
Here is the position.
          
 
        
 | | White is Ray Fogerlund
score: 13
pip: 52 | | 15 point match | pip: 90
score: 11
Blue is Jeb Horton |
|
| XGID=--BBBBBCA---------abcAdad-:1:-1:1:44:11:13:0:15:10 |
| Blue to play 44 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/4 7/3(3) | eq: -0.830 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 8.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.52% (G:0.51% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.831...-0.830) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22.7 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 21/5 | eq: -0.852 (-0.022) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 7.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.62% (G:0.16% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.000 (-0.853...-0.852) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15.1 seconds |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 8/4 7/3(2) 5/1 | eq: -0.832 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 8.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.62% (G:0.46% B:0.00%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 8/4 7/3(2) 6/2 | eq: -0.833 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 8.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
91.64% (G:0.48% B:0.00%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 7/3(3) 5/1 | eq: -0.841 (-0.010) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 7.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.04% (G:0.49% B:0.00%) | |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2