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OFF TOPIC  A question of logic
Posted By: rambiz
Date: Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 9:50 a.m.
In Response To: OFF TOPIC  A question of logic (joe freedman)
Jake Jacobs has already come up with a very nice explanation, thank you Jake.
I happened to buy the book some months ago at the airport. It is indeed a very recommendable read for anybody being interested in the ways opinions or call it prejudices are built up. In my experience, the notion of "conditional probability" is one of the most difficult concepts to absorb and the book is full of examples of common misconceptions, where our "intuition" goes wrong, exactly because most of us don't fully understand "conditional probability".
Here is another beautiful riddle (not from the book): You are in the last stage of a TV show and have a chance to win a Mercedes! The Mercedes is behind one of 3 closed doors, you get to choose from. After you make your choice, the show master opens, one of the other 2 doors, where nothing is behind, and offers you the option to change your original choice. What do you do? Do you keep the first door or do you switch?

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