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OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic

Posted By: rambiz
Date: Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 9:50 a.m.

In Response To: OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic (joe freedman)

Jake Jacobs has already come up with a very nice explanation, thank you Jake.

I happened to buy the book some months ago at the airport. It is indeed a very recommendable read for anybody being interested in the ways opinions or call it prejudices are built up. In my experience, the notion of "conditional probability" is one of the most difficult concepts to absorb and the book is full of examples of common misconceptions, where our "intuition" goes wrong, exactly because most of us don't fully understand "conditional probability".

Here is another beautiful riddle (not from the book): You are in the last stage of a TV show and have a chance to win a Mercedes! The Mercedes is behind one of 3 closed doors, you get to choose from. After you make your choice, the show master opens, one of the other 2 doors, where nothing is behind, and offers you the option to change your original choice. What do you do? Do you keep the first door or do you switch?

Messages In This Thread

• OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
  joe freedman -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 4:12 a.m.
  • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
    Jake Jacobs -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 5:11 a.m.
    • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
      Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 7:31 a.m.
      • +1 *NM*
        Jim Stutz -- Sunday, 3 May 2015, at 3:35 a.m.
    • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
      Fatboy -- Sunday, 3 May 2015, at 7:06 p.m.
  • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
    Art Grater -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:40 a.m.
  • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
    rambiz -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 9:50 a.m.
    • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
      Mike Clapsadle -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 11:29 a.m.
      • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:17 p.m.
        • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
          Bob Koca -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:26 p.m.
        • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
          Havard Raddum -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:28 p.m.
          • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
            Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:37 p.m.
        • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
          Mike Clapsadle -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 9:04 p.m.
  • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
    joe freedman -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 4:52 p.m.
    • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 4:57 p.m.
      • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
        joe freedman -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 5:36 p.m.
        • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
          Bob Koca -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:12 p.m.
          • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
            joe freedman -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:21 p.m.
            • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
              Bob Koca -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:44 p.m.
              • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
                joe freedman -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:59 p.m.
                • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
                  Bob Koca -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 7:17 p.m.
                  • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
                    joe freedman -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 8:20 p.m.
    • OFF TOPIC -- A question of logic
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:00 p.m.
      • Coin Flip variation
        Bob Koca -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:20 p.m.
        • Coin Flip variation
          Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 6:30 p.m.
        • Coin Flip variation
          joe freedman -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 7:13 p.m.
          • Coin Flip variation
            Bob Koca -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 8:01 p.m.
          • Coin Flip variation
            Art Grater -- Saturday, 2 May 2015, at 8:52 p.m.