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What is the proper thought process in this DMP prime v prime?

Posted By: hominid
Date: Tuesday, 2 June 2015, at 12:53 p.m.

In Response To: What is the proper thought process in this DMP prime v prime? (Marv Porten)

Understanding prime V prime is not rocket science it's just a simple process of your timing count. Timing count is your Pip count not including the runners behind the prime. With other subtle adjustments this can be a great aid when it comes to cube decisions. In this case blue has a pip count of 69 and white 61. Another aid of course is the ability to count roll odds. After the correct play 7/2* 3/2 the most feared reply is 6/1. The odds of this happening are 2/36 about 5% . The odds of white re-entering are 11/36 =30%.. In other words blue has a 70% chance of getting a free roll and maybe a six to boot. A six would spring a runner and blues timing would make a giant step due to the latent timing value of the runners. Win the timing count win the game. On account of having this bit of knowledge this play would have been instant over the table. It's wise to play the odds there's going to be further problems maybe but this is the best that blue has at this time. I would put my money on a win for blue.

I best not expand too much on this problem as Mushy Poo has banned me to the garden in the rain as I added too much content to a generous post by Phill.

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