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Lamb belly soup RO

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 2 June 2015, at 2:58 p.m.

In Response To: Lamb belly soup RO (Timothy Chow)

I finally did a rollout of this position with both double and no double. The report below doesn't say so explicitly, but the verdict was that White should double after 22/16 9/4 and after 22/11, but not after any of the top four plays. The biggest difference compared to the previous 3-ply/XGR rollout that I posted is that White is no longer doubling after 13/7 9/4. This fact pushes the top six plays much closer together.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 122
Unlimited Game
pip: 149
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---B-BCA-B--cB---dce-BA---:0:0:1:56:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 56

1.Rollout113/7 9/4eq: -0.788
Player:
Opponent:
28.35% (G:3.43% B:0.07%)
71.65% (G:6.69% B:0.14%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-0.793...-0.783) - [96.2%]
Duration: 5 hours 26 minutes
2.Rollout19/4 9/3eq: -0.795 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
27.95% (G:2.93% B:0.06%)
72.05% (G:5.81% B:0.15%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-0.800...-0.790) - [3.6%]
Duration: 5 hours 04 minutes
3.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.798 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
27.76% (G:2.95% B:0.06%)
72.24% (G:5.30% B:0.12%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-0.803...-0.793) - [0.2%]
Duration: 5 hours 06 minutes
4.Rollout19/4 7/1eq: -0.805 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
27.41% (G:2.78% B:0.05%)
72.59% (G:5.73% B:0.13%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-0.810...-0.800) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 41 minutes
5.Rollout122/16 9/4eq: -0.809 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
26.72% (G:1.78% B:0.04%)
73.28% (G:3.44% B:0.07%)
Conf.: 0.006 (-0.815...-0.804) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 00 minute
6.Rollout122/11eq: -0.810 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
26.24% (G:1.11% B:0.03%)
73.76% (G:1.82% B:0.05%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-0.815...-0.805) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 17 minutes
7.Rollout29/3 7/2eq: -0.815 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
27.21% (G:2.73% B:0.06%)
72.79% (G:5.73% B:0.15%)
Conf.: 0.010 (-0.825...-0.805) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 17 seconds
8.Rollout222/16 7/2eq: -0.820 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
26.52% (G:1.78% B:0.05%)
73.48% (G:3.80% B:0.07%)
Conf.: 0.011 (-0.831...-0.809) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 00 second
9.Rollout213/2eq: -0.824 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
27.49% (G:3.49% B:0.07%)
72.51% (G:7.49% B:0.20%)
Conf.: 0.010 (-0.834...-0.814) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 59 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 271828
First 3 moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

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