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The score, you fool!

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 12 June 2015, at 3:20 a.m.

In Response To: The score, you fool! (Karol Szczerek)

Modern METs give about 32% winning chances at gammon go so the gammon value is 32/68, which is barely less than 1/2.

The "safe" play 13/6 still leaves 6 shots so I think hitting is worth the risk. The DMP play looks like 13/9 8/5* but I doubt that I'd play that OTB. Although the gammon value of the opponent is normal, our own gammon value is zero. That usually means that we're less inclined to make plays like 13/9 8/5* at this score than for money, since we don't gain as much when the play works. QF suggests that we're supposed to play 13/9 but I would probably play 8/4 OTB. (There's also 8/5*/1 but that's almost the same number of return shots for far less gain when we're not hit, so I reject it.)

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