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OLM 20150621A The Dilly Builders

Posted By: Wolfgang
Date: Monday, 22 June 2015, at 2:13 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20150621A The Dilly Builders (Jason Lee)

We have a decent lead in the pip count, and there are good chances to hit the blot on the barpoint. The lead in the pip count is likely to become more distinct soon. The position, however, is a little overstretched. That is, we have already made the acepoint and a big gap yawns on the 3- and 4-point. So, our position is far from being convenient. According to O'Hagan's Law (OHL) we need about 9 marketloser sequences in order to justify an initial double at a "normal" score. Okay, it's 8away/7away here, but that's near to "normal" :)

Double 2's and double 6's are playing excellent, but I don't consider them to be marketloser sequences in terms of OHL even if the Prime Factors fan in the next roll. Even if these doublets were marketlosers, at least 7 (or more) additional rolls would be missing. Against the background of the insufficient amount of marketloser sequences, I prefer to roll the dice.

No Double - Roll the Dice

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