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AtS Cube Action

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 23 June 2015, at 12:41 a.m.

In Response To: AtS Cube Action (Stick)

OTB, I'd assess this as D/P for money, and then I would make an intuitive judgment that the score pushes it into D/T territory.

Over on rec.games.backgammon, Stick and I got into a debate that somehow got sidetracked into a meaningless argument, which was unfortunate because the original question was somewhat interesting. Namely, in a position like this one, do experts (a) rely primarily or entirely on judgment and intuition, (b) calculate (e.g., estimate wins/gammons/recube vig and do a match-equity computation), or (c) do both?

I know that for myself, I would not do the calculation because I know ahead of time that there's no way I would have any more confidence in my numerical estimates than in my intuitive judgment. For a race, of course, I would calculate, but this position is too far away from any position that I know the numbers for. I'm curious as to whether any BGO readers would actually take the time OTB to do a quantitative calculation here.

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