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I lost this bet

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 27 June 2015, at 6:38 p.m.

In Response To: I lost this bet (Fatboy)

If Phil made a bet then it's unlikely he "overlooked" the move.

What's obvious to one person isn't obvious to another. I think that most people who have studied backgammon a long time have gone through cycles of the following form.

Phase 1. Move A looks obvious and is correct.

Phase 2. Some move that appears very similar to Move A looks obvious but is totally wrong, and the correct Move B was not even considered.

Phase 3. Move A is correct but doesn't look so obvious any more because something resembling Move B is a candidate (but dead wrong).

Phase 4. Move A looks obvious again (and is correct) but the understanding of why it's the best move has changed and deepened.

Players in any phase may make careless errors, of course, but players in Phase 1 sometimes think that players in Phase 3 must be making careless errors even when the error isn't careless.

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