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When to break anchor?

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Monday, 29 June 2015, at 2:59 a.m.

In Response To: When to break anchor? (Dmitriy Obukhov)

When blue holds the anchor, he loses a moderate amount of equity in the race. When blue breaks the anchor he loses a lot of equity on POH and pick and pass rolls. I think an O'Hagan type of approach is very good for those who have the patience and ability to estimate wins after all major categories of events. Absent that kind of detailed calculation, you will do well by simply noting how many POH and pick and pass rolls there are after breaking anchor.

So, one might do a high level calculation as follows: If I break anchor, the race will be decided without further hitting approximately half of the time (sounds a little low, but I'll use it for simplicity). The loss in the race by holding the anchor will be moderate (perhaps 6 pips). If I break anchor, I'll be attacked by either POH or pick and pass on 13 numbers. The loss will be large. A moderate loss 18 times sounds better than a large loss 13 times. So, I would hold the anchor.

I think what is important is to see the size and frequency of the tradeoffs.

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