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When to break anchor?

Posted By: hominid
Date: Monday, 29 June 2015, at 11:01 a.m.

In Response To: When to break anchor? (Dmitriy Obukhov)

At a glance I can see that after this roll the pip count is about even. The problem is the crossovers are not. As blue I would like to run 20/9. Obviously white will hit loose given the opportunity so what are the odds. 11 ones hit and 11 twos hit less 2 rolls as 21 is duplicated, that is 20 rolls add a further four rolls for the hits from the 12 point, giving a total of 24 rolls. In a nanosecond this converts to 67%. Bearing in mind there are five rolls that point these are not acceptable odds to take. The chance of hitting on re-entry are just 11 rolls giving a 30% chance. To keep yourself amused you might multiply 67 x 30 to give a 20% chance of this event actually occurring . It's easy to multiply percents not so fractions To convert rolls to % multiply rolls by 3 divide by 5 deduct this from rolls x 3 to give the %. Viewing this as a table gives an easy logical visual explanation. Its in the box

https://www.dropbox.com/s/mew3bou935hwmo2/ROLLS%2036%20%25%20conversion.docx?dl=0

I did post this table a while back it makes one a maths genius in a moment. Perhaps this table will stop Mr Mochy from screwing up. Get your head around roll odds very often its the easiest solution. I gotta get back to my fishsim.

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