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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 29 June 2015, at 11:25 p.m.

In Response To: The books don't discuss positions like this one (Timothy Chow)

I've seen a fair number of anchor and guard positions before but this one still shocked me because it totally strips the 6pt. Anybody see any reasons not to trust the rollout?





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 149
Unlimited Game
pip: 155
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BCbC-B-bC--ac-dA-b-A-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout16/1* eq: -0.131
Player:
Opponent:
47.41% (G:13.41% B:0.50%)
52.59% (G:17.04% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.138...-0.124) - [99.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
2.Rollout120/18 13/10eq: -0.146 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
47.44% (G:11.33% B:0.51%)
52.56% (G:16.95% B:0.49%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.154...-0.139) - [0.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
3.Rollout220/15eq: -0.162 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
46.85% (G:8.71% B:0.36%)
53.15% (G:13.94% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.174...-0.149) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 37 seconds
4.Rollout220/18 8/5eq: -0.171 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
46.91% (G:12.15% B:0.55%)
53.09% (G:17.45% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.184...-0.158) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 00 second
5.Rollout213/10 8/6eq: -0.181 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
46.28% (G:11.88% B:0.50%)
53.72% (G:16.38% B:0.55%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.195...-0.167) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 48 seconds
6.Rollout213/8eq: -0.183 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
46.23% (G:11.22% B:0.54%)
53.77% (G:15.85% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.197...-0.170) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 31 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

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