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We blew this in our doubles match

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Friday, 3 July 2015, at 2:08 p.m.

In Response To: We blew this in our doubles match (phil simborg)

Trailer's tp is his mwc if he passes which at 7a-2a is ~16%. Matussek's EPC formula sez Blue will waste 1 more pip than White so I evaluated a 13 to 15 race with 13 on roll. Kleinman sez that gives the side on roll about 81% chances. So you're 3% away from an efficient recube which is certainly close enough to send it in a money game. I'd redouble ATS as well since you're only ahead by 1 point in the match. Plus the opponent might pass. How about volatility? You have 2 immediate winners, 8 more that win 17/18 of the time, D2 is almost gin if White fails to bear everyone off on his next turn, and several other sequences that leave White with < 16% chances.

Messages In This Thread

• We blew this in our doubles match
  phil simborg -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 5:47 a.m.
  • We blew this in our doubles match
    Alex Schofield -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 6:10 a.m.
  • We blew this in our doubles match
    David Rennie -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 6:36 a.m.
    • We blew this in our doubles match
      Stick -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 7:35 a.m.
      • We blew this in our doubles match
        David Rennie -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 11:39 a.m.
        • We blew this in our doubles match
          hominid -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 12:20 p.m.
    • We blew this in our doubles match
      Ray Kershaw -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 9:27 a.m.
      • We blew this in our doubles match
        David Rennie -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 11:24 a.m.
        • We blew this in our doubles match
          Bob Koca -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 11:02 p.m.
          • Of Thumbs and their Rules.
            David Rennie -- Saturday, 4 July 2015, at 5:39 a.m.
            • Of Thumbs and their Rules.
              Stick -- Saturday, 4 July 2015, at 6:50 a.m.
            • Of proper use of words
              Bob Koca -- Saturday, 4 July 2015, at 1:40 p.m.
              • Of proper use of words
                David Rennie -- Saturday, 4 July 2015, at 2:46 p.m.
                • Of proper use of words
                  Bob Koca -- Saturday, 4 July 2015, at 5:20 p.m.
                  • Of proper use of words
                    David Rennie -- Saturday, 4 July 2015, at 7:55 p.m.
    • We blew this in our doubles match
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 11:07 p.m.
  • Here is the problem....
    phil simborg -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 12:28 p.m.
    • Here is the problem....
      David Rennie -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 1:41 p.m.
      • Here is the problem....
        phil simborg -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 2:15 p.m.
    • Here is the problem....
      neilkaz -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 5:05 p.m.
  • We blew this in our doubles match
    John O'Hagan -- Friday, 3 July 2015, at 2:08 p.m.