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Ty this 3 vs 3 checker puzzle

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Friday, 3 July 2015, at 10:49 p.m.

The following position is about as close a take as can be. The EPC for each side is 16.99. Use that as a clue to guess the take equity if the side on roll is adjusted instead to 010110 which makes the EPC .01 worse.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 11
Unlimited Game
pip: 11
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--AA--A------------a--aa--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.797% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 76.797% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.203% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 23.203% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5359 +1.0719
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.6022 (-0.3956)±0.0005 (+0.6018..+0.6027)
Double/Take:+0.9978±0.0006 (+0.9972..+0.9984)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.0022)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16132000
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 0.3 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Thus, what is double take equity here?





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 11
Unlimited Game
pip: 11
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--A-AA-------------a--aa--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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