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OLM 20150703A The Prime Factors

Posted By: Igor
Date: Monday, 6 July 2015, at 4:16 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20150703A The Prime Factors (Casper Van der Tak)

According to my ongoing study, -7-7 adds about 0.05 D/T equity compared to money to the attacker in the blitz positions. (It can vary from 0.04 to 0.06, but 0.05 is a good average.) Here is one example:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 180
Unlimited Game
Jacoby
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=ba--B-E-A---dE--Ac-e----A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.86% (G:30.52% B:2.21%) 67.99% (G:31.88% B:2.20%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.14% (G:6.65% B:0.29%) 32.01% (G:6.90% B:0.33%)
Cubeless Equities +0.615 +1.257
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.846 (-0.154)±0.002 (+0.845..+0.848)
Double/Take:+1.001 (+0.001)±0.002 (+0.999..+1.004)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
124416 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46365989
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:91.9%
Duration: 12 hours 19 minutes

Rollout by Igor Erovenko
2013-Mar-06
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
43Z-44C-F-C-ie.xgp
[D 1001-155] "<=124

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 180
9 point match
pip: 151
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=ba--B-E-A---dE--Ac-e----A-:0:0:1:00:2:2:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.99% (G:31.23% B:2.22%) 68.11% (G:31.99% B:2.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.01% (G:6.66% B:0.34%) 31.89% (G:6.92% B:0.48%)
Cubeless Equities +0.632 +1.318
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.883 (-0.117)±0.007 (+0.876..+0.891)
Double/Take:+1.059 (+0.059)±0.010 (+1.048..+1.069)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes

Rollout by Igor Erovenko
2015-May-28
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
43Z-44C-F-C-7-7-ie.xgp
[D 1059-176] "<=5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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