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BGonline.org Forums
Cube Action AtS includes bot info
Posted By: Bob Koca In Response To: Cube Action AtS (David Presser)
Date: Tuesday, 7 July 2015, at 2:42 p.m.
I am not seeing at all how the efficiency will be extremely high. The cash point going to 8 is 58% (ignoring gammons). It will often be correct though to double on the very next roll with only about 20% win chance.
For example the best play with 32 according to XG is 18/15 13/11 and then it is a small cube. I was guessing it would be a close call on that cube and even if it were no double but close it also would mean cube efficiency is low since a big market loss is being risked. Also note that the hop and miss market loser is of a repeating nature. Thus it will be unlikely to "time" the recube efficiently. There are a lot of immediate positions giving this close choice. Thus I think the TP is not far from the TP assuming an autorecube of 17.4% lowered by gammon vig on an 8 cube where the gammon value is only about 1/3.
After 32 it is a small cube to 8 despite only 19% win chance and 5% gammon chance:
White is Player 1
score: 6
pip: 11511 point match pip: 47
score: 1
Blue is Player 2XGID=--aBBBB-B--ABA-A------cdg-:2:-1:-1:00:6:1:0:11:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 19.251% (G:4.980% B:0.003%) 19.247% (G:4.974% B:0.052%) Opponent Winning Chances: 80.749% (G:3.874% B:0.086%) 80.753% (G:3.593% B:0.066%) Cubeless Equities -0.5443 -0.4136 Cubeful Equities No redouble: -0.4433 (-0.0297) ±0.0051 (-0.4484..-0.4382) Redouble/Take: -0.4136 ±0.0056 (-0.4192..-0.4080) Redouble/Pass: +1.0000 (+1.4136) Best Cube action: Redouble / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16132000
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 4 minutes 14 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
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