Extreme Gammon told me that I screwed the pooch not only on this position, but on six other similar positions as I hit loose and recirculated checkers through the outfield. Most of the critical discussion points have been covered in the comments. What I evaluated incorrectly similar to others here is the surprisingly low cube efficiency on a recube to eight. At the board, my evaluation was that my opponent had an immediate recube to eight if I didn't make a full prime. I translated this to a take point close to the fully live take point of approximately 13%. As Bob Koca explains to us, that just isn't correct. The rollout shows the position as very close to a drop despite winning over 17%. I must admit, I am still baffled by the distance between these two numbers.
                      |
| ||||
| XGID=--aBBBB-B---BB----A---cdg-:1:1:1:00:6:1:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 82.930% (G:4.129% B:0.092%) | 83.330% (G:3.343% B:0.063%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 17.070% (G:3.171% B:0.034%) | 16.670% (G:3.075% B:0.034%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.6598 | +1.1551 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.8753 (-0.0465) | ±0.0041 (+0.8712..+0.8794) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.9218 | ±0.0060 (+0.9157..+0.9278) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.0782) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 47555033 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 49 minutes 10 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross