I am not sure we agree on the concept either.
We agree that a cube to 8 is likely but you use that to say the take point is just a little bit more than the live cube take point but I use it to say to use a little less than the TP assuming an automatic recube was mandatory.
The live cube TP value assumes an optimally efficient recube right at the TP border. In this position the cube very often comes at only about 20% win chance meaning compared to the live cube model that the residual 4% win chance form 1a 10a Crawford is very often lost.
The actual position rolls out to .934 take with 16.6% win chance and 2.83% gammon chance. I made it slightly worse aiming for a borderline TP to see what the takepoint is. Shifting a spare to the 2 point did it giving a .9993 take with 15.65% win chance. The win chance needed for a take is much greater than many were thinking.
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| XGID=--aBBBB-B---BB----A---beg-:1:1:1:00:6:1:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 83.522% (G:5.514% B:0.100%) | 84.353% (G:4.857% B:0.082%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 16.478% (G:3.484% B:0.014%) | 15.647% (G:3.081% B:0.039%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.6810 | +1.2029 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.8973 (-0.1019) | ±0.0068 (+0.8906..+0.9041) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.9993 | ±0.0101 (+0.9891..+1.0094) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.0007) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16132000 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 55.6% | |
| Duration: 5 minutes 55 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
A long race shows a good contrast. The cube is likely to be more efficient and even without the few gammons which help the taker in the original position a significantly lower win% of about 14.5% is needed for the take to be correct.
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| XGID=--BBCBCB-A-----b-abbbea---:1:1:1:00:6:1:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 85.569% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 85.513% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 14.431% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) | 14.487% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.7114 | +1.3300 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.9059 (-0.0897) | ±0.0025 (+0.9034..+0.9084) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.9956 | ±0.0031 (+0.9925..+0.9987) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.0044) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 16132000 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 99.7% | |
| Duration: 11 minutes 05 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross