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BGonline.org Forums
Pay Now Problem
Posted By: Taper_Mike In Response To: Pay Now Problem (Bob Koca)
Date: Saturday, 18 July 2015, at 1:42 a.m.
If a blot is left on the 4 point white is fine running a checker if he can. I wouldn't say that white's position can only get worse. And then will you try to dodge the shot next turn also? It is a way to lose the race when up so many pips.
I'll pay now.
I'm glad somebody is. As always, you make a good case.
Blue's racing advantage is somewhat mitigated by his stacks and gaps, as well as by the possibility that he may waste some more by clearing his 6pt before bearing in. I guess that means I am planning to dodge the shots next time (in most variations). It is worth noting, however, that a blot on the 4pt is not necessarily permanent. It can either be picked up or covered. When he breaks his anchor, White may be the one who is worried about leaving shots.
Blue's worst stacks are on his 1pt and 2pt. They are made worse by gaps on his 4pt and 5pt. Stacks on those lower points mean that Blue cannot fill the 4pt and 5pt during the bear-off when he rolls a 1 or 2. Since it will be hard to fill his gaps, the 4s and 5s he rolls will have to be played from the 6pt.
You are right when you say, "[Clearing the 6pt before clearing the 11pt] is a way to lose the race when up so many pips." But clearing the 7pt now, must help our race. Race-wise, that must be just as good (and probably better) than adding a third checker there. The 7pt is the worst place to bear in from. On average, half the checkers on the 7pt will bear into the 1pt, 2pt and 3pt. Adding checkers to the 7pt does not usually help with the race. To the extent that is true here, we pick up some of the race equity we will give back later if we are forced off the 6pt before we can clear the 11pt.
By choosing to pay later, Blue will usually get two chances to roll a doublet. Along the way White is sure to either run one checker (most likely), or else crack his 6pt. When that happens, Blue may get some pick-and-pass or hit-and-cover equity in addition to the equity he has when he rolls a doublet.
Volunteering now offers 11 shots. Later on, if Blue has to leave a single shot on the 11pt, he will be giving 17 shots. By then, however, he may have the opportunity to hit loose inside instead, and offer only 11 or 13 shots. Alternatively, he may be able to move forward from the 11pt so that the number of shots is somewhere between 13 and 15.
At this point, we could do some arithmetic, trying to figure out whether, say, 13, 14, or 15 shots later was better than 11 shots now. We would also need to factor in the potential for White's position to crack if shots are deferred until later. Unfortunately, I'm too tired for that right now!
I guess I'll just stick with what my intuition tells me.
Mike
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