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BGonline.org Forums
Point on Him
Posted By: Karol Szczerek In Response To: Point on Him (Stick)
Date: Tuesday, 21 July 2015, at 4:35 a.m.
I'm leaning towards 8/3* 7/3. It retains 4 builders for the 2 points left in our board, keeps opp farther back if he enters at 2 point, so we can come down from midpoint more comfortably. Also, gaps with spacing tend to be easier to bear-in against than adjacent ones. It just feels better.
Is it worth the extra 3 shots? It's 8,3%, after which we have a 61 or 11 jokers (call it 3/36 wins), and can hit loose with 2 more 1's (4/36 * 2/3 because of the blot = 2-3 /36 wins). So it's 5-6/36 return wins after 8,3% of his hits, which leaves ca. 7% deficit.
After the play I think we are somewhere near 70% win mark, with gammons of ca. 1/5 - 1/4 of our wins, say 15%. We should win few % more gammons after pointing on 3pt. (I'd guess 3-6%), which soothes some of the win % lost from those additional immediate shots.
I think merits of 8/3* 7/3 are worth it.
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