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Game plan - reduce damage

Posted By: svilo
Date: Saturday, 25 July 2015, at 5:17 p.m.

In Response To: Game plan (svilo)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 150 7 point match pip: 165 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-Ba---DBa---cD--ad-e----BA:0:0:1:41:4:0:0:7:3
Blue to play 41

1.	Rollout1	Bar/24 6/2*	eq: -0.628
	Player: Opponent: 39.50% (G:13.79% B:0.75%) 60.50% (G:18.57% B:1.01%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.644...-0.611) - [100.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 45 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/21 24/23	eq: -0.712 (-0.084)
	Player: Opponent: 36.57% (G:9.70% B:1.04%) 63.43% (G:15.82% B:0.71%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.727...-0.696) - [0.0%] Duration: 11 minutes 36 seconds
3.	3-ply	Bar/20	eq: -0.736 (-0.108)
	Player: Opponent: 37.42% (G:10.47% B:0.28%) 62.58% (G:16.82% B:1.02%)
4.	2-ply	Bar/21 6/5	eq: -0.851 (-0.223)
	Player: Opponent: 36.60% (G:10.33% B:0.29%) 63.40% (G:19.68% B:1.49%)
5.	1-ply	Bar/24 13/9	eq: -0.844 (-0.216)
	Player: Opponent: 36.78% (G:11.09% B:0.37%) 63.22% (G:19.67% B:1.62%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

I hold both Aces. What is my game plan here? I did not imagine he had such an enormous advantage here, The fact is, having made my ace point and not moved from his, there is no viable strategy in sight like blocking, priming. Holding games can happen, but without doubles I need to first split and then cover - a long shot. ATS he is giving the cube no matter what. Whenever I split I need to reckon the gammon dangers... Do I have a strategy here? Do I have an asset, an advantage in some department here? Difficult to weigh apples agains oranges. XG tells me after a rollout that my best chance is the ugliest play bar/24, 6/2x! The blot hitting contest. Right now I have one more point than him and the preemptive strike may give us a swallow of air. Sometimes the strategy is to reduce damages... Played with disgust...

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Game plan
  svilo -- Friday, 24 July 2015, at 1:47 p.m.
  • Game plan
    phil simborg -- Friday, 24 July 2015, at 6:51 p.m.
    • Also AtS?
      Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 24 July 2015, at 8:03 p.m.
      • Also AtS?
        Timothy Chow -- Friday, 24 July 2015, at 11:10 p.m.
    • Game plan
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 24 July 2015, at 10:23 p.m.
  • Game plan - reduce damage
    svilo -- Saturday, 25 July 2015, at 5:17 p.m.
    • Game plan - reduce damage
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 25 July 2015, at 9:36 p.m.