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Bear off cube action

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Wednesday, 12 August 2015, at 5:32 p.m.

In Response To: Bear off cube action (Mochy)

The method I would use to estimate win chance is the following:

1) First estimate EPC and subtract 6 from white and 11 from blue. (Of course estimating EPC is not always easy)

2) Then use D^2/S calculation and use Kleinmann method to convert to a win chance.

The reason for the subtractions are as follows: 1) Kleinmann technique is for a long race but here there is more wastage. A long race has wastage of about 7. Thus the excess wastage should be added on. Subtracting 7 from both side does that. 2) Subtract 4 from blue for being on roll. 3) White's position has many checkers on low points which makes volatility in number of rolls to bear off less. This hurts the trailer. I have found that a 1 pip penalty is about right so add 1 back to white.

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