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BGonline.org Forums
OLM 20150813A The Dilly Builders
Posted By: Wolfgang In Response To: OLM 20150813A The Dilly Builders (MandM1951)
Date: Saturday, 15 August 2015, at 8:11 p.m.
The answer is: yes and no. I have played only a few regional tournaments in the last years. For this reason, I only can rely on my experiences in my daily matches versus the bot (iron man mode, mostly clocked (2min/8sec)) or online matches. As for me, the time required for estimating the number of market losers depends on the characteristics of the particular positon.
To cut a long story short: The time required for applying O'Hagan's Law correlates with the degree of my positional backgammon understanding. The better my understanding of the position, the easier (and quicker) to apply the technique and vice versa. All in all, I appreciate this technique very much because of its practical benefits. In the given OLM position, I didn't actually apply this technique when I made my decision because of the strong priming aspects of the Prime Factors. So, I don't use it in really every position. By the way, the said video I relied on can be found on the Facebook site of the backgammon learning center where a lot of highly recommendable videos are stored.
- The easy cases: There are some types of positions that have a strong stimulus causing me to count the market losers. I don't overlook the chance to double initially. First off, I determine the number of rolls being market losers in itself (without any additional conditions). Then, I try to determine the rolls being conditional on my opponent's next roll. For instance, in a given postion (late middle game), I have sent one checker on the bar. I determine 3 rolls being "pure" (unconfined) market losers. Moreover, I see 9 strong rolls being market losers whenever my opponent fails to re-enter against my 5-point board. So, having a total of 3 + 9 x 0.7 = 9.3 market losers, I would probably tend to give an initial double. In well-known types of positions, I am likely to manage this kind of consideration quite easily, and without running the risk of timeout. Let's say about 20-40 seconds.
- The intricate cases: Apparantly, I am selectively blind with regard to some types of positions, since I don't understand them sufficiently. For instance, positions where I have one or several checkers on the bar. This indicates a lack of my backgammon understanding in general. Either I entirely miss to recognize the opportunity of having a strong initial double or I misinterpret the number and/or quality of potential market loser rolls. Thus, the time required is large, and secondly, the results are often incorrect in such particular positions. So, I don't manage to apply this technique in reasonable time. Ironically, there is a brilliant educational video made by John O'Hagan himself which starts exactly with such a position where the player on roll has a strong initial double although he has a checker on the bar. When I first tried to solve that quiz position, I came to the wrong conclusion not to double, since I underrated the number (and quality) of market loser sequences.
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