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OLM 20150825A The Prime Factors

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Wednesday, 26 August 2015, at 9:34 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20150825A The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)

How are we doing?

After {D5,D3,D1,53,51,31,D4,D6,64} = 13/36 we will probably end up with a 1- or 2-point holding game, giving us about 15% winchance.

The other moves might lead to a blitz where blue will get an average of 40% returns (giving a 50% winchance),

without the returns blue gets 15% winchance again.

So I estimate blue will win 13/36 x 15% + 23/36 x 40% x 50% + 23/36 x 60% x 15% = 5,4% + 12,8% + 5,8% = 24%.

This is without taking gammons into account.

Both sides have equal boards and equal blots, but since white has the initiative I think most gammons will be on the white's side.

Combined with the match-score, I think the balance tips to dropping the cube.

Answer: Pass

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