Funny, I came up with the same variant Tim did, and I was in the middle of rolling it out when I saw his follow-up post.
I offer another variant, in which Blue's side of the position remains the same. White's position has been altered by one (important) pip.
If someone wants to roll it out, feel free, or you can settle for the XGR++ evaluation included below. Also, scroll down to see a key related position.
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 155 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 157
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-A--bAD-B--AcD-b-c-e----B-:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 24/18 6/5 | eq: -0.204 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.78% (G:10.32% B:0.31%)
54.22% (G:15.55% B:0.64%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 24/23 11/5 | eq: -0.251 (-0.047) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.23% (G:9.76% B:0.26%)
55.77% (G:15.09% B:0.58%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 11/5 6/5 | eq: -0.264 (-0.060) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.81% (G:9.54% B:0.23%)
56.19% (G:15.13% B:0.58%) | |
|
Now, if we move the checker on Blue's 1pt back to his 8pt (or we move White forward 1 pip in Tim's variant), we have the frequently arising third-roll position 21$-33B-61 diagrammed below. (With her 33, White should have played C, but B is a common misplay.)
Nack
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 24/18 6/5 | eq: -0.087 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.57% (G:9.16% B:0.32%)
51.43% (G:12.45% B:0.43%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 24/23 11/5 | eq: -0.172 (-0.086) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.09% (G:9.26% B:0.31%)
53.91% (G:13.36% B:0.44%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 13/7 6/5 | eq: -0.174 (-0.087) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.21% (G:10.25% B:0.38%)
53.79% (G:14.53% B:0.76%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 11/5 6/5 | eq: -0.212 (-0.126) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.43% (G:9.25% B:0.31%)
54.57% (G:14.51% B:0.51%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 11/5 8/7 | eq: -0.221 (-0.135) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.90% (G:10.02% B:0.36%)
55.10% (G:14.65% B:0.65%) | |
|
