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51U-55A-F-C – Unlimited Game – 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 31 August 2015, at 11:08 a.m.

In Response To: 62S-55A-F-C – Jacoby, no beavers – 3-ply XG2 Rollout (Timothy Chow)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aB-B--CaA---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 65.937% (G:37.412% B:0.534%) 66.464% (G:39.295% B:0.507%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 34.063% (G:7.317% B:0.355%) 33.536% (G:7.541% B:0.375%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.6215 +1.2963
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.8029 (-0.1971)±0.0056 (+0.7972..+0.8085)
Double/Take:+1.0278 (+0.0278)±0.0099 (+1.0179..+1.0377)
Double/Pass:+1.0000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 36
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 55 minutes 09 seconds

Rollout by Dmitriy Obukhov
2013-Jan-01
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.xx
51U-55A-F-C-do.xgp
[D 1028-225] "<=5

51U-55A-F-C — Unlimited Games
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link
XG 2.xx 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 36 +1000.0 [D 1028–225] "<=5 Dmitriy Obukhov
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval [XGR++ seed] +1000.0 [D 1021–214] "&e Taper_Mike

Like you, I interpreted REW’s description of a “familiar baseline” as a position that comes up in play. For me, that eliminates 65S-55A-F-C and 51U-55A-F-C. That’s why I went with 6xS-55A-F-C. I understand there may still be some Middle Easterners who play an opening 51U, but, personally, I have never had it played against me.

I learned some time ago that 6xS-55A-F-C (where 6xS is 62S, 63S, or 64S) were all passes. When your blot is inside (on the 23pt, 21pt, or 20pt), it is an asset. Indeed, it is the first half of an anchor. When the blot is outside (on the 18pt), you do not have half an anchor. To make matters worse, the outside blot is a target. Even against 8-in-the-zone, you must pass.

51U-55A-F-C is ultimate test of this. Because the position is not complicated by a second blot in the outer board, it is a good position to test the theory described in the preceding paragraph.

Thanks for the link to Nack’s post. Good stuff, as always.

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