1. | Rollout1 | 24/21 13/8 | eq: -0.203 |
| Player: Opponent: | 43.89% (G:7.43% B:0.23%) 56.11% (G:8.39% B:0.29%) | Conf.: � 0.014 (-0.217...-0.190) - [100.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 26 seconds |
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2. | Rollout1 | 10/5* 8/5 | eq: -0.240 (-0.037) |
| Player: Opponent: | 44.35% (G:12.84% B:0.58%) 55.65% (G:16.94% B:0.95%) | Conf.: � 0.015 (-0.255...-0.225) - [0.0%] Duration: 19 minutes 04 seconds |
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3. | 4-ply | 24/21 6/1* | eq: -0.368 (-0.164) |
| Player: Opponent: | 39.63% (G:6.92% B:0.15%) 60.37% (G:12.51% B:0.46%) | |
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4. | 3-ply | 24/21 8/3 | eq: -0.372 (-0.169) |
| Player: Opponent: | 39.66% (G:7.08% B:0.23%) 60.34% (G:12.61% B:0.45%) | |
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5. | 3-ply | 24/21 10/5* | eq: -0.425 (-0.221) |
| Player: Opponent: | 39.55% (G:7.96% B:0.27%) 60.45% (G:15.55% B:0.58%) | |
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1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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Above is John's original rollout of [P @37] (though only 1k) with Brown spares on 8pt + 6pt.
The third rollout (final diagram of this post) is my contrasting rollout of [@ P17] with spares on 8pt + 7pt (no inside spare).
The second rollout (immediately below) of [@ P7] is for the variant discussed in the final paragraph here.
The spare placements in the second and third rollouts eliminate Brown's 22 joker (when White POH). The third rollout also takes away Brown's inside spare (and neither her entering 5s nor 6s play conveniently down).
Nack
P.S. Typically, I'm visualizing positions in my head rather than looking at the board, and I've got into the habit of seeing Blue (near side) and White (far side) as I write. Sorry if that was confusing in my previous two e-mails. Here, White (vanilla?) is on the near side and Brown (chocolate?) is on the far side.
1. | Rollout1 | 24/21 13/8 | eq: -0.203 |
| Player: Opponent: | 43.88% (G:7.68% B:0.23%) 56.12% (G:8.86% B:0.30%) | Conf.: กำ 0.005 (-0.208...-0.199) - [97.1%] Duration: 4 hours 58 minutes |
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2. | Rollout1 | 10/5* 8/5 | eq: -0.210 (-0.007) |
| Player: Opponent: | 44.79% (G:13.42% B:0.56%) 55.21% (G:16.56% B:0.98%) | Conf.: กำ 0.006 (-0.216...-0.205) - [2.9%] Duration: 5 hours 01 minute |
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1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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1. | Rollout1 | 10/5* 8/5 | eq: -0.183 |
| Player: Opponent: | 45.29% (G:13.56% B:0.56%) 54.71% (G:15.48% B:0.88%) | Conf.: กำ 0.008 (-0.190...-0.175) - [100.0%] Duration: 3 hours 11 minutes |
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2. | Rollout1 | 24/21 13/8 | eq: -0.200 (-0.017) |
| Player: Opponent: | 44.15% (G:7.53% B:0.22%) 55.85% (G:8.44% B:0.30%) | Conf.: กำ 0.006 (-0.206...-0.193) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 17 minutes |
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1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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