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Rollouts

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Wednesday, 2 September 2015, at 11:11 a.m.

In Response To: First Game of Match Cube Decision (Neil Robins)

It is RD/T ATS. even though for money it would be a blunder to recube. As regards the gammmon value: Recubing to 8 diminishes it from pretty well the money value of 0.5 to 0.32. After a turn to 16, the winner of the game will already be above a 98% match favourite, slashing the gammon value to below 0.02. As regards the danger of getting the cube back immediately on 16 following a miss: I have looked at a couple of them, probably including your worst throw, and, as far as I see, it is never more than a super-marginal cube with a pass being in double whopper territory.

Finally, I looked at what would be the effect if this was actually the second game of the match (which is actually where I got the position from). Then it's always a very clearcut decision one way or the other





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 44
19 point match
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBC---------aB-b-cBbg-:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:19:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.41% (G:10.93% B:0.33%) 65.67% (G:10.69% B:0.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.59% (G:6.82% B:0.02%) 34.33% (G:10.25% B:0.21%)
Cubeless Equities +0.332 +0.630
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.459 (-0.020)±0.002 (+0.458..+0.461)
Redouble/Take:+0.480±0.004 (+0.476..+0.483)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.520)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71284
First 2 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 10 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 44
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBC---------aB-b-cBbg-:2:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.35% (G:11.02% B:0.34%) 65.23% (G:11.21% B:0.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.65% (G:6.63% B:0.01%) 34.77% (G:6.81% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.334 +0.704
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.462±0.002 (+0.460..+0.465)
Redouble/Take:+0.382 (-0.081)±0.004 (+0.378..+0.386)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.538)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.5%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71284
First 2 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 19 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 116
19 point match
pip: 44
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--BBBBC--A------aA-b-cBbg-:3:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:19:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.31% (G:18.71% B:0.35%) 74.14% (G:22.09% B:0.51%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.69% (G:0.53% B:0.01%) 25.86% (G:0.51% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.604 +0.810
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.790 (-0.005)±0.002 (+0.788..+0.791)
xg Redouble/Take:+0.795±0.002 (+0.793..+0.797)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.205)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71284
First 2 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 09 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 104
19 point match
pip: 44
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--BBBBCB--------a--b-cBbg-:3:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:19:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.84% (G:5.90% B:0.01%) 74.86% (G:7.46% B:0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.16% (G:0.34% B:0.01%) 25.14% (G:0.30% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.533 +0.824
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.798 (-0.012)±0.001 (+0.796..+0.799)
xg Redouble/Take:+0.810±0.002 (+0.808..+0.812)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.190)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71284
First 2 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 18 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 44
19 point match
pip: 124
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBC---------aB-b-cBbg-:2:1:1:00:1:0:0:19:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.57% (G:10.35% B:0.28%) 65.71% (G:10.24% B:0.37%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.43% (G:6.84% B:0.02%) 34.29% (G:9.87% B:0.25%)
Cubeless Equities +0.322 +0.562
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.435±0.002 (+0.433..+0.438)
Redouble/Take:+0.353 (-0.082)±0.005 (+0.349..+0.358)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.565)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.2%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71284
First 2 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 05 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 44
19 point match
pip: 124
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBC---------aB-b-cBbg-:2:1:1:00:2:0:0:19:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.62% (G:10.27% B:0.27%) 65.79% (G:9.95% B:0.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.38% (G:6.75% B:0.02%) 34.21% (G:9.44% B:0.21%)
Cubeless Equities +0.316 +0.495
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.427±0.002 (+0.425..+0.429)
Redouble/Take:+0.221 (-0.207)±0.005 (+0.216..+0.225)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.573)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 20.9%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71284
First 2 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 23 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 44
19 point match
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBC---------aB-b-cBbg-:2:1:1:00:0:1:0:19:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.19% (G:11.12% B:0.35%) 65.61% (G:10.76% B:0.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.81% (G:6.76% B:0.02%) 34.39% (G:10.23% B:0.16%)
Cubeless Equities +0.337 +0.698
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.475 (-0.109)±0.003 (+0.473..+0.478)
Redouble/Take:+0.584±0.005 (+0.579..+0.589)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.416)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71284
First 2 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 35 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 44
19 point match
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBC---------aB-b-cBbg-:2:1:1:00:0:2:0:19:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.98% (G:11.37% B:0.36%) 65.56% (G:10.98% B:0.37%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.02% (G:6.84% B:0.02%) 34.44% (G:10.62% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities +0.342 +0.771
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.488 (-0.210)±0.002 (+0.486..+0.491)
xg Redouble/Take:+0.699±0.005 (+0.694..+0.704)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.301)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71284
First 2 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 57 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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