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Related positions (B vs D)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 4 September 2015, at 6:39 a.m.

In Response To: 65R-31P-52D-33 (with spoiler) (Igor)

Thanks, Igor (a fellow freak of nacture), for varying the subject line. It worked, nacturally.

In this post, I address money and normal match score play (and of course not situations with an obvious, overriding hit), when Blue has his (24pt and) 5pt and rolls 33.

If White still has two deep back checkers (e.g., 31P-51S-33), it is typically right for Blue to prime with D (Down, 13/7(2)). However, once White has escaped with one of her back checkers, B (Both, 24/21(2) 13/10(2) generally dominates.

An exception is shown below: 51S-31P-54R-33. D comes out ahead, though barely. Essentially, it's a tie. As I recall -- I don't seem to have the rollout -- 31P-64S-33 (same, but with no fourth checker on White's 8pt) is also a tie between D and B (and E = 24/21(2) 6/3(2) is also tied or very close).

Other fourth roll positions that support B when one White checker is partially or fully escaped are: 54S-31P-63R-33 (White on 16pt), 52S-31P-54R-33 (13pt, same as Igor's 31P-65R-33 but with a four-checker 8pt), 52S-31P-65S-33 (11pt, an alternate sequence to reach Tim's position), and 65R-31P-54D-33 (9pt). The concept, though, does extend beyond the fourth roll.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 152
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BD-B--adE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:3:0:10

51S-31P-54R-33


1.Rollout113/7(2)eq: +0.388
Player:
Opponent:		58.77% (G:19.59% B:0.66%)
41.23% (G:10.24% B:0.51%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.383...+0.393) - [97.9%]
Duration: 4 hours 11 minutes
2.Rollout124/21(2) 13/10(2)eq: +0.381 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		58.36% (G:16.01% B:0.41%)
41.64% (G:6.47% B:0.24%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.376...+0.385) - [2.1%]
Duration: 4 hours 38 minutes
3.Rollout224/21(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.369 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		58.18% (G:15.61% B:0.41%)
41.82% (G:6.15% B:0.22%)		Conf.: กำ 0.007 (+0.362...+0.375) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 48 minutes
 
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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