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BGonline.org Forums
OLM 20150903A The Prime Factors
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: OLM 20150903A The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)
Date: Friday, 4 September 2015, at 3:04 p.m.
I'm one of those (presumably in majority?) players who hasn't memorized all the replies. No excuses, just a fact. So I try to use principles. I recall there is one (only one?) 22 reply that you're supposed to hit 24/16*. Given all the returns, I doubt this is it. 24/20(2) looks good at GG but this score doesn't apply. So start with 6/4(2).
24/22(2) looks like a candidate given that 1) opp is likely to start building his board this roll, and 2) it puts pressure on the 16-point blot. However, it's not the best advanced anchor (in fact the worst) and sometimes Dillies just make the 9-point, blocking escaping 6's.
One general principle I recall for replies is that when opp makes an opening which is a strong threat to build the homeboard (either a slot or two down), you have extra incentive to play offensively yourself. Of course this could be primarily due to the less vulnerability of leaving outside shots and that particular issue isn't present (unless one argues for finishing 24/22, 13/11, which I don't).
If you make the commitment to only play the 22 reply one way no matter what opp opens (again, not recommended) then 6/4(2), 13/11(2) would be it because it is right more than any other 22 reply. That's another good principle for someone with the crutch of not having memorized the replies -- don't try to guess when the out-of-the-ordinary play is best. If not sure, make the standard.
6/4(2), 13/11(2)
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