I've played around with some variants. See some of them below. It seems that with our back guy in danger, we should play safe is possible, while not sacrificing too much structure. Keep the high points (shifting from 6 to 5 or from 5 to 4 is fine, but from 4 to 3 usually bad). Also, keeping 8 and 2 points simultaneously is a bad idea because of inefficient 6's, as Wolfgang pointed out.
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 6/5 2/1(2) | eq: -0,707 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34,79% (G:9,23% B:0,32%)
65,21% (G:25,83% B:0,43%) | Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,713...-0,701) - [98,9%]
Duration: 3 hours 52 minutes |
|
2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 6/5(3) | eq: -0,717 (-0,010) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34,55% (G:6,86% B:0,28%)
65,45% (G:23,64% B:0,31%) | Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,723...-0,711) - [1,1%]
Duration: 3 hours 02 minutes |
|
3. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 6/5 4/3(2) | eq: -0,790 (-0,083) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33,94% (G:8,55% B:0,38%)
66,06% (G:26,95% B:0,45%) | Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,796...-0,785) - [0,0%]
Duration: 3 hours 30 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 6/3 | eq: -0,820 (-0,113) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33,68% (G:8,56% B:0,37%)
66,32% (G:27,76% B:0,46%) | Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,826...-0,814) - [0,0%]
Duration: 3 hours 25 minutes |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
|
Variant A
       
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 123 | | 13 point match | pip: 138
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=---BB-CbB---bEa--bab-bab-A:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:13:10 | | Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 6/3 | eq: -0,622 | | Player:
Opponent: | 36,33% (G:7,38% B:0,30%)
63,67% (G:21,66% B:0,26%) | |
| | 2. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 6/5(3) | eq: -0,635 (-0,013) | | Player:
Opponent: | 36,05% (G:6,77% B:0,29%)
63,95% (G:21,01% B:0,24%) | |
| | 3. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 6/5 3/2(2) | eq: -0,690 (-0,068) | | Player:
Opponent: | 35,23% (G:8,05% B:0,31%)
64,77% (G:23,94% B:0,34%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Shifting 6 to 5 point isn't a big deal. Keeping a spare higher after 6/5(3) seems to be worth just as much having 6pt. instead of 5pt. after 6/3. 3/2(2) is bad because of 2+8pts. principle. |
Variant B
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 123 | | 13 point match | pip: 124
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=--BC--CbB---bDa--bab-bab-A:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:13:10 | | Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 3/1 2/1 | eq: -0,520 | | Player:
Opponent: | 37,54% (G:9,96% B:0,22%)
62,46% (G:19,52% B:0,35%) | |
| | 2. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 6/5(3) | eq: -0,563 (-0,044) | | Player:
Opponent: | 36,95% (G:7,80% B:0,24%)
63,05% (G:18,70% B:0,28%) | |
| | 3. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 6/5 2/1(2) | eq: -0,579 (-0,059) | | Player:
Opponent: | 36,25% (G:9,88% B:0,24%)
63,75% (G:21,47% B:0,39%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Making the ace activates the inefficient spare from 3pt., and 6's from the 8pt. Other plays leave the inefficient spare in place. |
Variant C
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 123 | | 13 point match | pip: 134
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-B--B-CbB---bEa--bab-bab-A:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:13:10 | | Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 6/5(3) | eq: -0,679 | | Player:
Opponent: | 35,05% (G:7,04% B:0,20%)
64,95% (G:22,00% B:0,28%) | |
| | 2. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 6/5 4/3(2) | eq: -0,766 (-0,088) | | Player:
Opponent: | 34,02% (G:8,31% B:0,24%)
65,98% (G:25,58% B:0,39%) | |
| | 3. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 6/3 | eq: -0,797 (-0,118) | | Player:
Opponent: | 33,89% (G:8,35% B:0,23%)
66,11% (G:26,16% B:0,39%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
6/5(3) is safe, keeps 2 out of 3 high points. The spare on 5pt. is an active builder for 2 other points. Making the 3 shifts our good 4pt. into a much worse 3pt., and leave a risky blot with only 1 cover. 6/3 keeps the good points, but duplicates our own 5's, which play great from the midpoint. |
Variant D
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 123 | | 13 point match | pip: 129
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=---BC-CbB---bDa--bab-bab-A:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:13:10 | | Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 6/3 | eq: -0,457 | | Player:
Opponent: | 39,26% (G:8,75% B:0,29%)
60,74% (G:16,98% B:0,25%) | |
| | 2. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 6/5(3) | eq: -0,475 (-0,018) | | Player:
Opponent: | 39,01% (G:8,02% B:0,28%)
60,99% (G:17,13% B:0,23%) | |
| | 3. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 4/2 3/2 | eq: -0,483 (-0,026) | | Player:
Opponent: | 38,63% (G:9,66% B:0,34%)
61,37% (G:18,96% B:0,30%) | |
| | 4. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 6/5(2) 4/3 | eq: -0,487 (-0,030) | | Player:
Opponent: | 38,50% (G:9,54% B:0,34%)
61,50% (G:19,21% B:0,31%) | |
| | 5. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 6/5 4/2 | eq: -0,512 (-0,055) | | Player:
Opponent: | 37,92% (G:10,70% B:0,37%)
62,08% (G:20,45% B:0,42%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
4/2 3/2 might look like a most efficient play, but it's still worse than safe plays. 2+8pt. principle plus one of the cover being 5's, which are good anyway, plus the risk of the blot is too much. Spares after 6/5(3) are a bit more flexible than after 6/3, but the 6>5pt. advantage seems to rate higher than that. 6/5(2) 4/3 is a strong contender because of a thin possibility to create a best-4-pt. board, but the blot is too much risk to make it best play. Double slot, a normally great efficient play, is too risky here. |
Variant E
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 123 | | 13 point match | pip: 126
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=---B-CBbB---bDa--bab-bab-A:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:13:10 | | Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 5/4(3) | eq: -0,206 | | Player:
Opponent: | 40,42% (G:7,18% B:0,28%)
59,58% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | |
| | 2. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 6/4 5/4 | eq: -0,233 (-0,027) | | Player:
Opponent: | 39,45% (G:7,74% B:0,32%)
60,55% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | |
| | 3. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 5/2 | eq: -0,261 (-0,055) | | Player:
Opponent: | 38,16% (G:8,30% B:0,33%)
61,84% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | |
| | 4. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 5/4 3/2(2) | eq: -0,266 (-0,060) | | Player:
Opponent: | 38,16% (G:8,02% B:0,32%)
61,84% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Safe play trumps again. 6/4 5/4 is better than 5/2 because of the best-4-pt. board chance. Even if we don't cover, the 6pt. blot is a flexible builder. |
Variant F
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 123 | | 13 point match | pip: 140
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=---B-BCbB---bEa--bab-bab-A:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:13:10 | | Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 6/4 5/4 | eq: -0,595 | | Player:
Opponent: | 37,10% (G:8,55% B:0,36%)
62,90% (G:23,31% B:0,32%) | |
| | 2. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 6/3 | eq: -0,611 (-0,015) | | Player:
Opponent: | 36,64% (G:7,33% B:0,29%)
63,36% (G:21,21% B:0,25%) | |
| | 3. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 6/5 3/2(2) | eq: -0,618 (-0,022) | | Player:
Opponent: | 36,27% (G:7,58% B:0,30%)
63,73% (G:21,89% B:0,25%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
The slot play is risky but rewarding if we cover. The safe 6/3 is a bit inflexible. The 3/2(2) keeps our 6 & 5 pts. and is safe but the 2+8pt. principle still make it worse. |