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Another pointless double ATS and U

Posted By: svilo
Date: Saturday, 12 September 2015, at 7:24 a.m.

In Response To: Another pointless double (svilo)

		White is Player 2 score: 4 pip: 150 7 point match pip: 135 score: 3 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---A--EbBa---E--AdceA-----:0:0:-1:D:4:3:0:7:3
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65.84% (G:19.97% B:0.85%)	65.58% (G:20.79% B:1.80%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.16% (G:5.16% B:0.57%)	34.42% (G:5.68% B:0.58%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.466	+1.353
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.792 (-0.208)	±0.013 (+0.779..+0.806)
Double/Take:	+1.142 (+0.142)	±0.021 (+1.120..+1.163)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 19 minutes 39 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

I took this, lost a gammon and the match. From the myth "You can't double pointless" I had already passed on to believe in "All pointless doubles are takes". Scores influence vastly pointless cube decisions. To pass is a sky high blunder of 0.3 in a moneygame. To take is a Falafel with cheese 0.15 blunder at 3a4a.

Perhaps my belief should be reduced to "Most pointless doubles are takes in a money game" :)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 150 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 135 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---A--EbBa---E--AdceA-----:0:0:-1:D:0:0:3:0:3
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65.88% (G:18.87% B:0.54%)	65.63% (G:20.32% B:0.62%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.12% (G:4.84% B:0.16%)	34.37% (G:5.08% B:0.19%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.462	+0.938
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.658 (-0.038)
Double/Take:	+0.696
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.304)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

Messages In This Thread

• Another pointless double
  svilo -- Thursday, 10 September 2015, at 11:17 p.m.
  • Another pointless double
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 10 September 2015, at 11:52 p.m.
    • Another pointless double
      Igor -- Friday, 11 September 2015, at 12:20 a.m.
      • Another pointless double
        Grigorij Liev -- Friday, 11 September 2015, at 12:57 p.m.
        • Another pointless double
          Grigorij Liev -- Friday, 11 September 2015, at 12:59 p.m.
      • Another pointless double
        neilkaz -- Friday, 11 September 2015, at 3:07 p.m.
  • Another pointless double ATS and U
    svilo -- Saturday, 12 September 2015, at 7:24 a.m.