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BGonline.org Forums
desperately GS?
Posted By: PINO In Response To: Tough play for me (Alex Schofield)
Date: Monday, 14 September 2015, at 2:47 p.m.
Check the gammon value table (eg http://itikawa.com/gp.html) you see that the gammon price at -1 -4 is the same as at -25, -25 and effectively the same as at €, i.e. 0.5.
What is the gammon price? The number of plain wins you are at most ready to sacrifice for an additional gammon. Or: "The standard definition of the gammon price is the difference between the payoff when you win a gammon and when you win a single game, divided by the difference between a single win and a single loss. gammon price = (gammon win − single win) / (single win − single loss) " (
Plug the figures into the table above and you get 0.5 (=(2-1)/(1-(-1))) At -1, -4C the trailer can lose (and have 0 equity), win simple for 0.32 or win a gammon for 0.48. In Zare's formula, we get 0.16/0.32=0.5 (not equal to the 0.51 of the itikawa link above because the 16 and 32 have been rounded up or down a bit)
As for the "what am I missing?" question, maybe you should realise that the trailer at -2 PC is not twice as good as at -3 PC. Don't forget that people at -3 win gammons sometimes, with the gammon price at 1 (after you've doubled). (that the gammon price is twice the normal one even though you can't use a part of those, that's also counter-intuitive)
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