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Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 15 September 2015, at 7:34 p.m.

In Response To: find the right play - XGR++ (garyo)





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 122
7 point match
pip: 116
score: 6

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-D--D-Cb--bB-B-a-c-b-bb-:1:1:1:65:6:2:0:7:10

Original Position


1.XG Roller++13/8 13/7eq: -0.257
Player:
Opponent:		46.07% (G:9.05% B:0.34%)
53.93% (G:15.64% B:0.21%)
2.XG Roller++8/2 6/1* eq: -0.525 (-0.268)
Player:
Opponent:		39.87% (G:10.04% B:0.44%)
60.13% (G:28.05% B:0.45%)
3.XG Roller++8/3 8/2eq: -0.546 (-0.289)
Player:
Opponent:		37.68% (G:7.64% B:0.33%)
62.32% (G:25.77% B:0.51%)
4.XG Roller++13/2eq: -0.602 (-0.345)
Player:
Opponent:		36.84% (G:8.88% B:0.56%)
63.16% (G:29.52% B:0.46%)
5.XG Roller++13/7 6/1* eq: -0.640 (-0.383)
Player:
Opponent:		37.70% (G:9.16% B:0.41%)
62.30% (G:32.86% B:1.05%)

The XGR++ evaluation of Garyo's original position appears above.

Below, Variant 1 moves a spare from Blue's 8pt back to his 15pt. This makes it possible to slot the 4pt without leaving two blots (or a double shot). It is very close now, but 13/8 13/7 still comes out on top (rollout).

To make 15/4 the best play, it is necessary to move back a 6pt or 3pt spare. See rollouts for the second and third variants below.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 122
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 123
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-D--D-Bb--bB-C-a-c-b-bb-:1:1:1:56:0:0:3:0:10

Variant #1 (8pt spare to 15pt)


1.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.066
Player:
Opponent:		43.51% (G:7.95% B:0.29%)
56.49% (G:18.30% B:0.20%)		Conf.: กำ 0.004 (-0.071...-0.062) - [100.0%]
Duration: 54 minutes 22 seconds
2.Rollout115/4eq: -0.080 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		43.43% (G:9.35% B:0.42%)
56.57% (G:20.32% B:0.40%)		Conf.: กำ 0.004 (-0.084...-0.076) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 122
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 125
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-D--C-Cb--bB-C-a-c-b-bb-:1:1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10

Variant #2 (6pt spare to 15pt)


1.Rollout115/4eq: -0.067
Player:
Opponent:		43.84% (G:9.41% B:0.43%)
56.16% (G:20.56% B:0.35%)		Conf.: กำ 0.004 (-0.071...-0.063) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
2.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.117 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:		42.07% (G:7.04% B:0.26%)
57.93% (G:18.86% B:0.18%)		Conf.: กำ 0.004 (-0.121...-0.113) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 122
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 128
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-C--D-Cb--bB-C-a-c-b-bb-:1:1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10

Variant #1 (3pt spare to 15pt)


1.Rollout115/4eq: -0.016
Player:
Opponent:		45.55% (G:9.45% B:0.45%)
54.45% (G:18.91% B:0.32%)		Conf.: กำ 0.004 (-0.020...-0.012) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
2.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.054 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		44.03% (G:8.17% B:0.33%)
55.97% (G:18.29% B:0.19%)		Conf.: กำ 0.004 (-0.059...-0.050) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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