The actual position that arose OTB was the variant below, where making the 5pt duplicates 2's.
There's still a lot of variance left in these rollouts. I don't think that the ranking of the plays will change but the equity differences might.
         
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 150 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 139
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---bB-D-Ca-BbC---bbdb-A---:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/7 8/7 | eq: +0.115 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.84% (G:11.86% B:0.58%)
46.16% (G:12.57% B:0.47%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.101...+0.129) - [100.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 22 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 22/15 | eq: +0.070 (-0.045) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.77% (G:9.56% B:0.40%)
47.23% (G:12.37% B:0.46%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.056...+0.084) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 22/16 8/7 | eq: +0.066 (-0.049) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.67% (G:9.79% B:0.39%)
47.33% (G:12.16% B:0.50%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.052...+0.080) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 11/5 6/5 | eq: +0.043 (-0.073) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.37% (G:11.03% B:0.47%)
47.63% (G:12.81% B:0.42%) | Conf.: ± 0.027 (+0.015...+0.070) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 04 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
Variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 150 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 138
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---bB-D-Ca-BbC---bbdbA----:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 11/5 6/5 | eq: +0.159 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.44% (G:13.07% B:0.60%)
45.56% (G:12.11% B:0.42%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.146...+0.172) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 26 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/7 8/7 | eq: +0.115 (-0.044) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.22% (G:13.46% B:0.61%)
46.78% (G:13.43% B:0.51%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.101...+0.129) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 18 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release