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Deep defense - ROLLOUT & OTB

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Friday, 18 September 2015, at 11:18 a.m.

In Response To: Deep defense (Karol Szczerek)

OTB I realised that I don't have good enough timing for the backgame right now, plus opp has too much time to efficiently defend it. So I went with 24/18*, removing immediate threat of opp making his bar point, give myself a chance to make a great connecting point not 6 but 5-away from the rear force, and opening a slight chance to attack / claim the outfield in case he throws an anti-joker.

I'm glad to see my reasoning confirmed by the experts.

I heard XG ain't great in backgames. So I didn't trust it. I was surprised it valued 23/17 so close.

I was quite quite quite surprised it valued 13/7* so close too, as I saw 23/17 as clearly better for backgame and 24/18* as clearly better for going forward.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 147
13 point match
pip: 238
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---baBBa----ACaa--abbbbDBA:1:1:1:26:0:0:0:13:10
Blue to play 26

1.xgRollout1Bar/23 24/18* eq: -0,841
Player:
Opponent:
30,55% (G:4,47% B:0,22%)
69,45% (G:48,21% B:13,75%)
Conf.: ± 0,016 (-0,857...-0,826) - [96,9%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/17eq: -0,861 (-0,020)
Player:
Opponent:
31,46% (G:1,72% B:0,09%)
68,54% (G:46,70% B:16,85%)
Conf.: ± 0,014 (-0,875...-0,848) - [2,9%]
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/23 13/7* eq: -0,874 (-0,033)
Player:
Opponent:
30,78% (G:4,23% B:0,25%)
69,22% (G:47,92% B:17,30%)
Conf.: ± 0,016 (-0,890...-0,858) - [0,2%]
Duration: 1 hour 29 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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