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Old Photos - Backgame Cube #2

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Saturday, 19 September 2015, at 10:57 a.m.

In Response To: Old Photos - Backgame Cube #2 (Stick)

An easy take. It should be a take even after shifting 6 to 5 due to our bad distribution and opp good timing.

So the question is whether to double or not. The volatility is high on the next exchange. If opp hits, we are way behind. If we break 6 and avoid a hit we are way past opp's TP. On that basis I would aggressively double OTB at NMS. It's a money game, so the double should be clear to activate gammons.

Let's break down the rolls to confirm this:

a/ market losers (safe and clear the 6): 11 22 33 32 62 63 = 9/36
b/ static (safe, but no real improvement): 44 55 31 43 53 54 = 10/36
c/ blot (break the 6, loose market if missed) = 66 21 51 61 42 52 64 65 = 15/36
d/ a 41, which breaks the 4pt. exposing a blot but is not a market-loser if missed

We lose market after /a/ + < half of /c/ (missed) = 9 + 7 = 16/36 market losers.
We stay in place after /b/ + half of /d/ (missed) = 11/36.
We are thrown behind after the rest = 9/36.

Even if we are thrown behind, we should still have an easy take, since opp doesn't have many builders nor 6-prime, and we'd have 6 checkers out.

These numbers are enough for me to double.

By OHL I'd translate ca. half of those bad exchanges into anti-jokers. So 16 market losers minus 4-5 anti-jokers give 11-12 market losers. A small double.

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