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Hard to find over the board

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 20 September 2015, at 11:39 a.m.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 69
Unlimited Game
pip: 79
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ABBBCBb---C--------abcdc-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.Rollout111/10 5/2eq: +0.2885
Player:
Opponent:		57.73% (G:7.00% B:0.22%)
42.27% (G:1.26% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ±0.0042 (+0.2843...+0.2928) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout15/1eq: +0.2246 (-0.0639)
Player:
Opponent:		57.91% (G:2.32% B:0.03%)
42.09% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ±0.0046 (+0.2200...+0.2292) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 45 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57883507
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Volunteering a shot when you trail by only 6 pips (after this move) is not an easy thing to do! Given an attractive option to make a closed board, it becomes almost impossible.

Race-wise, there is a bit of wastage in playing to the 1pt. Similarly, moving to the 10pt will speed the bear-in.

The key, of course, is the open board with blot on the other side. When White rolls 62, 61, 52, or 51 he will be forced to leave a double direct shot. 63 and 53 allow White to hit, but they do not let him lift the inside blot. A variation that removes White's blot (by lifting it) swings the position strongly in favor of making a closed board.

Mike

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