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No QF Here

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 21 September 2015, at 5:51 a.m.

In Response To: No QF Here (Stick)

Okay. I'm a donk. Let me prove it.

If Blue allows White's blot to remain on his 5pt, then he will need White to somehow not jump out for at least three rolls, and probably more. As the odds of leaping over the three-point block are 75% on each attempt, the chance that White does not escape in three tries is (1/4) cubed. It seems obvious, therefore, that Blue must hit.

After that, it seems equally obvious that Blue must cover. Now, White must enter quickly, and somehow crack. The odds are long, but they appear to be better than 1 in 64.

I presume that either I am wrong by a mile, or else this "non-QF" problem is a setup for a follow-on question.

There is another possibility. That's hara kiri. But I usually reserve that trick for times when I already have the second anchor. Furthermore, it is nice to have a bridge to the outer board, so that you can recycle the checkers that get hit. For these reasons, I did consider a suicide play until my post was complete. Besides, that would be a QF play!

Mike

Messages In This Thread

• No QF Here
  Stick -- Monday, 21 September 2015, at 3:34 a.m.
  • No QF Here
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 21 September 2015, at 5:51 a.m.
  • No QF Here
    scotty -- Monday, 21 September 2015, at 7:08 a.m.
  • No QF Here
    ah_clem -- Monday, 21 September 2015, at 2:15 p.m.
  • No QF Here
    neilkaz -- Monday, 21 September 2015, at 6:10 p.m.
    • No QF Here
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 21 September 2015, at 8:43 p.m.
  • No QF Here
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 21 September 2015, at 6:27 p.m.
  • No QF Here - Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 22 September 2015, at 6:55 p.m.
    • Variants (free of QF)
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 22 September 2015, at 11:08 p.m.