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Bearing off against lots of contact

Posted By: scotty
Date: Monday, 21 September 2015, at 8:00 a.m.

In Response To: Bearing off against lots of contact (Timothy Chow)

let's look at the candidate plays here, 4/o, 3/o: 6/3,4/o: 6/2, 3/o: 6/3, 6/2.

6/3,4/o this play leaves us vulnerable to blotting on the next roll with 66, 55, 44. Discard this one.

4/o, 3/o This is likely the play I would make over the board, without recognizing the advantages of something much more interesting. There are no immediate blotting threats, but it does nothing to help clear our 6 pt., and the loss of two spares reduces our flexibility on future rolls.

6/2, 3/o Begins to clear our 6 pt. but leaves us vulnerable to blot if we roll 65, 61, 51.

6/3, 6/2 White has 2 on the bar, which means she can only hit with a 6, giving her 11/36 chance to hit on the next roll. 6 of those rolls will fail to enter the second checker. If white fails to hit our blot on the 6pt, we will be able to clear the 6 pt safely with every roll, except for 55. Our chances of clearing the 6pt safely next roll are 875/1296 or about 2/3. Further, it is better to be hit now, rather than later, when White will have been able to develop stronger containment. Also, if blue is hit now, white will have a checker remaining on the bar for 31/36 of her rolls, giving blue a better opportunity to respond.

6/3, 6/2

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