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True or false? Future BG bots will significantly outplay XG 2

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 21 September 2015, at 2:36 p.m.

In Response To: True or false? Future BG bots will significantly outplay XG 2 (Tom Keith)

>There are fewer than 18,528,584,051,601,162,496 positions in DMP backgammon. (Extending to match play increases this number by some factor, but not a huge one.)

Actually, there are countably infinitely many different match scores so there are infinitely many positions. However, I don't think this materially changes the points you made since there are only finitely many match scores that anyone cares about.

If we cap it at 99a-99a, I get less than 10k possible match scores in a match to 99. Multiply by about 7 to get all the scores and cube positions in a match of that length == about 7000. Shorter match lengths are already counted since all scores are already represented. So, my backof the envelope says the factor is less than 7000 if we're only considering "reasonable" match lengths.

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