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Equity Bets

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 21 September 2015, at 10:26 p.m.

In Response To: Equity Bets (Albert Steg)

'we could just use the rollout result itself'

While technically XGR++ is a truncated rollout when you said this I assumed that you were fully rolling out the decisions. With today's computers it's quite possible to settle bets with a 1296 rollout in most decisions in very little time. In the future I'd just say settle with XGR++ because if I showed up to your game and you offered me such a bet and told me you let an XG rollout decide the equity I would expect exactly that, a full rollout, not ++. Stipulate beforehand the number of trials if you were to use a full rollout or a number of trials combined with a maximum amount of variance still involved.

And of course, if you feel more strongly about a position, you can bet $2 per .01 or $5 per .01.

That's assuming the other player feels as strongly and is ok to up the bet. This is actually why I prefer betting a point or something similar. You don't give away your hand. If I make these equity bets in general and most bets we roll at $1 per .01 and suddenly I want to bet $5 per .01 if you have an ounce of sense you'll end up not betting me at all.

As for the betting on cube decisions, Herb should have only collected $13 if what you're saying is true. You bet on no double v. double, end of story. There is no ambiguity here that I see. This is also an instance of where if you just bet a point on who was right you're done.

I also don't like keeping track of singles or paying along the way while I'm playing. If you bet a point you can tack it on the score sheet. Easy. Even if you're betting 20s or 50s that's a denomination of whatever you're playing for so you could tally it on the score sheet and settle later.

To each his own but I think you deserve more for being right than the equity difference of the plays. You're saying "well, if we played it out as a prop that's how much equity he would give up". Yes, he would. Every game. When you play something out as a prop you don't play it once, you play it a ton of times generally.

Stick

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