There's no need to volunteer a shot here when there are three plausible plays that don't. Between 6/3 4/off and 6/2 3/off, 6/3 4/off leads to some immediate blotting roll with high doublets, but generally speaking high doublets are not the first worry in these sorts of positions. They are rare and even if you do roll them, you've taken off four more checkers, making it harder for your opponent to win. The extra checker on the 2pt and the stripped 3pt are more serious because they lead to long-term inflexibility and blotting danger. So 6/3 4/off is better than 6/2 3/off.
The real question is whether to rip two. It has the advantage of leaving only 63 as an immediate blotting roll. And of course a checker off helps with the race, whether we are hit or not. The trouble is that it doesn't start clearing the 6pt, which is a priority against an ace-point game, especially with a gap on the 5pt. The 6pt needs to be cleared sometime, and after 4/off 3/off, it will generally take two rolls to clear the 6pt, by which time some awkward burial will probably have occurred, if not an actual blot. According to the rollout, 6/3 4/off is best.
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| XGID=bdBCDaC--------a--ab-b--b-:1:-1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 43 | |||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/3 4/Off | eq: +1.730 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 4/Off 3/Off | eq: +1.668 (-0.062) | |||
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| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/2 3/Off | eq: +1.636 (-0.094) | |||
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| 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release