[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Here's what I don't understand

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 26 September 2015, at 1:55 a.m.

In Response To: Here's what I don't understand (Tom Keith)

Tom Keith wrote:

Suppose you are trying to decide what date to have your company picnic on and the whether data suggest a 4% chance of rain for July 27 versus a 12% chance of rain for September 27. I think that would be useful to know.

But suppose that the 4% and the 12% came from wildly unreliable models. Then getting the numbers 4% and 12% might be worse than useless if it led you to believe that the precision in the forecast implied that it was accurate to, say, plus or minus 5 percentage points, when it was nothing of the sort.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.